How does one have confidence that an external market with sufficient demand exists for a program? It requires an unbiased examination of some fundamental assumptions.

In the bubble collapse of many of the dot-coms, one of the key underpinnings of failure: An idea (or product or program), without the market or the demand to support it, is at high risk for failure. An often-invoked quote that captured this blind faith in thinking came from the movie Field of Dreams: "If you build it they will come".

Stumbling Blocks. One can have careful execution and development of courseware, pedagogy, faculty resources, student support and the like, but have disappointing enrollments. The disappointments may revolve around:

• reliance on anecdotal information without specifics (research, requests/inquiries, quantitative data)
• confusing "demand/market assessment" with "rationalization for a program/course"
• assumption that specific demand for a specific program exists based on broad trends or market generalizations (e.g. "the aging of the baby boomer population" is a general trend, not a specific predictor)
• confusing overall demand for professionals with the credential awarded by the program with demand by potential students for the particular program. Example: the assumption that a credentialed teacher shortage in ESL (M.Ed.) means students want ESL M.Ed. online. Perhaps the real demand to be found is in elementary ed., or general ed, or for certification only (etc.). Perhaps ESL is not particularly suited for online study.
• assumption that new (external) demand exists and is similar for the online format because some level of (internal) demand exists in the classroom format .
  (Example: working adults' needs/motivations/access and preferences for online courses may differ in needs from on campus/on ground students in a particular field of study. In business and engineering, for example, external demand for online learning shows a marked preference for problem-solving formats over theory-based)
• not identifying the real target audience with precision
• not developing a succinct execution plan with timetable to "get the word out" to the target audience who might otherwise not be aware of a program's existence

These mistakes can prove harmful. In light of these potential stumbling blocks, it is easy to see why "If you build it they will come" is not enough. One must also consider the important issues of motivation, context, and ability.

Motivation is the relative value placed on the program/offering by the student due to the outcomes, rewards, or impetus associated. Questions that help frame motivation:

Why does a student want this offering (vs. others that may be available)?

Are there specific rewards/outcomes associated with this offering that increase motivation? (job promotion, increased responsibilities, required certification, unique competencies)?

• Financial motivations? (it's significantly cheaper, they can keep their current job)
• Geographic motivations? (too far away)
• Work/life motivations? (couldn't juggle other demands and attend any other way)

Ability is how "able" a particular target audience is to participate. Despite strong motivation, a group (the target audience) may not have the ability due to various obstacles and challenges. Questions that help frame ability:

• Time/place- does the target have the required time and environment from which to commit to the offering?
• Do they have the access to do this online?
• Do they have a comfort level with online? Will they require training? Do you offer appropriate technical support to a particular level of ability?
• Do they have the personality for online learning?

Finally, context questions take into account external factors, or the idea that the offering does not occur in a vacuum.

• Is there a broader trend underway (in this field)? Are there specific requests for a program of this type via online?
• Are there a multitude of choices for offerings (yours or competitors) relative to the market size? If so, how will this offering be evaluated against others by the target audience?
• Is there a current pipeline(s) that is easy to tap for garnering enrollments? Is the target heterogeneous and scattered? What elements do they have in common (eg alumni, professional affiliations, trade group)
• Is there a institution or company that can be partnered with to secure enrollments (a hospital for a health program; a manufacturing company for a business program; a higher ed. entity for an education program)
  

Some of your evidence to support might be anecdotal, some evidence might not be available, and some evidence you may want to find out through research. The components are not so much distinct (there is obvious overlap) as they are interdependent.

It might help to think of the three components as having a relative value (low/med/high). In this light, one could see how a low value on "ability" might require a higher value on "motivation" to ensure the best shot at success. For example, a program targeted to a population that does not have a high comfort level with online courses might still be very interested if the degree is the only one of it's type offered online (context) or part of a certification requirement in their field (motivation). It might also suggest that one explore partnering with a local institution (a community college) for computer access/technical support.

Prior to any significant development of coursework, a framework is needed to properly assess, evaluate, and implement a plan with high confidence for success. Four key steps are important:

1. Market Assessment
2. Market Analysis
3. Real Target Audience
4. Marketing Plan

1. The Market Assessment is a methodical look at the many factors that define the market. It should include research (ideally primary) that starts with the general market and environment, and ends with a specific Student Demand Assessment (SDA) designed to cull/prioritize specific areas of programming interest.

2. The Market Analysis attempts to order the results of the Market Assessment and "match" the results to specific offerings that have the best chance for success. This matching of results to offerings includes the first pass on the specifics of the audience and their ability/access/predisposition to achieve success via an online program.

3. The Target Audience section also aims to move from the general to the specific. From the Market Assessment the potential audience (or universe) should be clear. Now it is critical to zero in on the Real Target Audience. Here we are looking to explore and define with as much detail as possible the most logical specific audience that would enroll and be admitted, including their demographics, work-life situation, geography, distribution, etc.

4. The Marketing Plan is the culmination of the previous three steps into a coherent section that details the strategies to reach the target audience(s), the formats/content to be utilized, and the timetable for execution. The Marketing Plan must allow enough lead time to be implemented, reach the target audience, and affect enrollments. Depending on the program, this can be three to six months or more.

Starting with the questions and answers around this framework, the results can form the base of support and confidence for development of a successful program.